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A guide on baseball-betting: The stat-addict’s dream!

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Baseball and its biggest star MLB have gained a lot of popularity in Europe recently. In this article we discuss the craft of tactical and technical statistics-based betting.

In this most American of sports, predicting the outcome starts with the most important player on the pitch: the starting pitcher.

Information on the starting pitchers is released significantly in advance and the MLB’s statistic database offers a lot of data on teams and their pitchers.

 

The most important stats when comparing pitchers are:

-ERA – The average amount of runs conceded

-WHIP – Balls + hits conceded / per inning

-HR/9 – home runs conceded per 9 innings (a game)

By comparing these three stats you can get a pretty good idea of the strengths and weaknesses of the starting pitchers. It’s also worth taking note on their home and away form. Some pitchers struggle away, but some flourish without the home crowd pressuring them on.

 

Comparing batters:

-OBP – Their batting average

-Runs per match

-Runs batted in per match 

OBP in particular is a very important stat besides the actual runs hit average. This stat correlates strongly with runs ran per game, so is definitely noteworthy.

 

The conditions – The stadium and weather:

This may sound like minimalistic thinking, but in terms of over/under bets, they can have a massive effect.

 

The weather

Windy and rainy conditions obviously lower the chances of hitting the ball, and also means the ball’s ability to fly is diminished. This in turn means a smaller amount of home runs, which subsequently accounts to less runs per game.

 

The stadium

This may come as a surprise, but a baseball-field doesn’t have a standard length, or even a shape! For example, the MLB’s smallest field, Fenway Park of the Boston Red Sox is unsymmetrical and is only 92 metres at its shortest point. In comparison, Wrigley field of the Chicago Cubs requires a massive hit of over 107 metres, an astounding 15 metre difference!

 

The best and worst 5 stadiums in terms of amount of runs (2012-2014) ESPN:

1. Colorado

2. Milwaukee

3. Detroit

4. Boston

5. Cincinnati

………………

26. NY Mets

27. Cleveland

28. LA Dodgers

29. Seattle

30. Pittsburgh

 

These tips should help you make a good start! Happy betting!

 

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