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BREXIT: PROBABILITIES AND BETTING

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It's a crucial time for the United Kingdom, and the stakes are getting higher by the day for the BREXIT-vote. The most puzzling thing is currently who'll come to vote? Many people think that the low voting percentage will mean a sure win for Brexit, as most of the younger people in the country are on EU's side and less likely to make appearances at voting booths across the country. The percentage of people who want to leave the EU has been on a steady rise, but experts and bookies still think that staying in the EU is the likelier option.

BREXIT: IN OR OUT? THE KEY QUESTIONS:

- Will the younger people vote? If not, leaving the EU is much likelier

- What will the turnout be for the vote: a lower turnout is for people against the EU

- Big changes in the last minute are probable - even in the very last days before the vote!

- BREXIT have made a great late rally - can the YES to EU people respond?

- The murder of Joe Cox - will the shocking incident play in to the EU-people's hands

- How active will the EU-favouring Scots and Welsh people be in the vote?

Polls:

- Staying in the EU is still the more likely option

- However, a lot of people have left their opinion blank

- The turnout may be at only 50% this plays into the hands of those favouring Brexit

- Wales and Scotland are clearly in favour of staying in the EU

- Younger voters prefer the EU, but won't necessarily be active voters

PROBABILITY AND ODDS

Bookies currently estimate the likelihood of staying in the EU at 70-80%. You can get odds up to 1/4 for staying in the EU. You can place bets on the vote at UK betting giants like Betway and Bet365. There are also a lot of special bets available for Brexit.

The bookies naturally therefore think that the likelihood of BREXIT to happen is somewhere between 20-30%. The bookies vary slightly in their opinion, but are mostly in the same boat. For example, British bookies Betway are giving odds of 3/1 on Britain separating from the EU, while SportingBet have even better odds.

However, the odds have been the same for a long time, despite the vast advances BREXIT-supporters have made recently in the polls. The vote was previously considered just a formality, but now the NO to EU camp may be on the verge of making the biggest political change in Britain for years.

In the best polls for BREXIT the NO-camp have achieved a 43% support, while the YES-camp have had to settle with 45%. This result proves that some Brits have no interest in voting. This percentage of silent voters may rise, making the probability of a surprise in the vote even higher.

Top economists have said the likelihood of separating from the EU is approximately 40%. Brexit may be an economical disaster for many, so now could be a good time for a protective bet.

BETTING: 

Both the experts' opinions and the polls (40%) are completely different from the bookies' estimation (20-30%) of the likelihood of Britain's separation. With this information betting on BREXIT to happen seems an attractive option. The best odds for Britain leaving the EU can be found at Sportingbet. On the other hand the best odds for Britain staying in the EU are at betting exchange Betfair.

YES TO EU to win: 33/100 Betfair

NO TO EU to win: 16/5 SportingBet

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